According to a recent report by Fitch Ratings, Dubai’s real estate market is expected to witness a double-digit price correction in the second half of 2025 and into 2026. This projection marks a significant shift following years of rapid growth post-COVID-19.
The agency highlighted a sharp increase in housing supply, with over 210,000 residential units scheduled for delivery between 2025 and 2026 — nearly twice the total from the previous three years. This unprecedented supply spike could lead to a price drop of up to 15%, putting pressure on the market.
Between 2022 and early 2025, residential property prices in Dubai surged by around 60%. This growth was fueled by extensive infrastructure projects, favorable tax policies, and reforms in social and visa rules, attracting a wave of foreign investors and residents — including Russians fleeing the Ukraine conflict.
Real estate remains a critical pillar of Dubai’s economy. In 2024, the emirate recorded 761 billion dirhams ($207.22 billion) in property transactions, representing a 36% increase in volume compared to the previous year, based on data from the Dubai Land Department.
This is not the first time Dubai has faced such volatility. The 2009 property market crash led to a dramatic downturn, requiring a $20 billion bailout from Abu Dhabi. As market analysts brace for another correction, the coming years will be crucial for the resilience of Dubai’s property sector.
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