Why Are Most of Dubai’s Off-Plan Property Owners Holding Onto Their Assets in 2026?
Dubai’s off-plan property segment continues to dominate transaction activity, accounting for 73% of total sales in 2025, up from 69% in 2024. Despite signs of market cooling, most off-plan investors are choosing to hold rather than resell a strong signal of confidence in long-term capital appreciation.
According to Cavendish Maxwell’s 2025 Dubai Residential Market Performance Report, the emirate recorded more than 200,000 residential transactions last year, totaling AED 541.5 billion. Sales volumes rose nearly 19% year-on-year, while transaction values increased 27%, pushing the market to new all-time highs.
If you’re evaluating entry timing, you may also want to read our analysis on whether Dubai’s real estate market will crash in 2026, which explains why current cooling signals are part of a normal cycle.
Off-Plan Resales Are Slowing But That’s Strategic
Industry data suggests that only 10% to 20% of off-plan buyers are reselling their units before completion. This means the overwhelming majority are holding onto their assets.
This slower resale activity is not necessarily a sign of weakness. Rather, it reflects investor discipline. Many buyers are targeting higher returns and are unwilling to exit prematurely unless price expectations are met.
Off-plan buyers typically commit 20–25% deposits during early project phases. With strong capital inflows, population growth, and infrastructure expansion, investors are betting on continued appreciation rather than short-term flipping.
Have Prices Peaked?
While the Property Monitor Index has shown three months of marginal softening across 41 freehold communities, year-on-year performance remains strong. Market participants widely view the current phase as normalization rather than reversal.
After five years of sustained upward growth, a cooling period was inevitable. Markets do not rise in straight lines indefinitely. Instead, they stabilize, digest supply, and prepare for the next cycle.
To understand broader supply dynamics, see our breakdown of Dubai’s fork in the road between land prices and off-plan pricing, which explains how developer economics influence launch volumes.
Supply Numbers Need Context
Approximately 40,400 new residential units were delivered in 2025, significantly below earlier forecasts of 82,600 units. For 2026, projections suggest 110,500 units may complete, but historical completion patterns indicate actual deliveries may range between 33,000 and 50,000 units.
Delivery delays are common in large-scale development cycles. More importantly, much of the under-construction stock has already been sold off-plan. The real variable is absorption capacity, not headline supply figures.
Historically, Dubai absorbs around 35,000 ready units annually under balanced conditions. As long as population growth and business formation continue, this absorption capacity remains structurally supported.
Structural Drivers Supporting Long-Term Holding
Several macro factors continue to underpin investor confidence:
- Strong population growth and migration inflows
- Rising number of high-net-worth individuals relocating to Dubai
- Geopolitical stability relative to global markets
- Tax-efficient investment environment
- Record tourism and business registrations
For a deeper look at wealth migration trends, see our report on Dubai becoming one of the wealthiest cities in EMEA.
Normalisation, Not Correction
Market analysts describe 2026 as a year of normalization. Rising supply and moderating price growth indicate a shift toward more balanced conditions rather than structural weakness.
Performance will increasingly depend on:
- Absorption rates
- Buyer sentiment
- Completion schedules
- Developer pricing discipline
Speculative behavior tends to create sharp corrections. However, current resale activity suggests measured investor behavior rather than overheating.
Investor Perspective: Why Holding Makes Sense
Real estate is fundamentally a long-term asset class. Off-plan investments typically deliver maximum upside at or shortly after handover, when rental income begins and resale demand transitions from international buyers to resident end-users.
With rental yields in Dubai averaging around 7%, and prime areas delivering consistent capital growth, many investors are prioritizing income plus appreciation rather than short-term arbitrage.
If you’re exploring diversification strategies, you may also find value in our guide on real estate vs cryptocurrency in 2026, which outlines why property remains the more stable wealth-building vehicle.
Conclusion
The slower pace of off-plan resales in Dubai is not a warning signal. It reflects strategic investor behavior during a natural cooling phase following record-breaking growth.
With transaction volumes at historic highs, supply phasing under control, and structural demand drivers intact, most off-plan owners are choosing patience over panic.
In real estate, timing matters but discipline matters more. And in 2026, Dubai’s off-plan investors appear to understand that clearly.
