Dubai Property Prices Jump 16.1% Year-on-Year in November 2025 as Sales Value Hits AED 64.7 Billion
Dubai’s real estate market delivered another high-impact month in November 2025, with pricing growth accelerating on an annual basis and transaction activity reaching record levels. Average property prices, measured by price per square foot, rose 16.1% year-on-year to AED 1,755 in November 2025, highlighting sustained buyer confidence even as analysts begin to watch for segment-specific moderation moving into 2026.
This is an important distinction for investors interpreting market headlines. The price movement is not simply a month-to-month fluctuation. It reflects a broad annual uplift across residential and commercial categories, supported by high transaction volumes and a notable reliance on cash purchasing rather than leverage.
Record November Activity Signals Strong Demand
In November 2025, Dubai recorded 19,019 total property transactions, representing a 30.9% year-on-year increase compared to November 2024. The value of sales climbed even faster, reaching AED 64.7 billion, a 49.6% jump year-on-year. This widening gap between transaction growth and value growth suggests buyers continue to compete for higher-quality inventory and are willing to absorb price increases, especially in well-located, well-positioned projects.
For investors, the headline is not only that the market is active, but that capital deployment is increasingly concentrated in segments where buyers perceive durability, rental strength, and longer-term exit liquidity.
Price Growth is Broad-Based, With Villas Leading
Average sale prices increased across most property types on a yearly basis, with villas showing the strongest uplift. Apartments recorded an average price of AED 1.4 million, up 14.1% year-on-year. Villas reached an average price of AED 4.1 million, rising 30.7% year-on-year, reflecting the continued premium buyers place on larger layouts and lifestyle-led communities. Commercial units averaged AED 2.1 million, rising 38.9% year-on-year, reinforcing the strength of demand for business space alongside the residential cycle.
This performance supports the view that Dubai remains a segmented market. It is not moving as a single block, and pricing power differs materially depending on location, product quality, and buyer profile.
Cash Transactions Continue to Shape Market Resilience
A key theme in November’s data is the market’s reliance on cash. While overall sales value surged, mortgage value growth was limited to 4.0% year-on-year. This suggests the rally is not primarily fuelled by expanding leverage, and it reduces the market’s sensitivity to interest rate shifts compared to cycles where credit growth drives demand.
In practical terms, this matters because cash-heavy transaction cycles tend to be more stable in periods of global monetary tightening. They also indicate that Dubai is continuing to attract buyers who are deploying capital for lifestyle, long-term residence planning, or portfolio diversification, rather than short-duration speculation.
Off-Plan Dominance Remains the Defining Feature
Off-plan sales accounted for roughly 70% of sales volume in November 2025, reinforcing Dubai’s position as a market where new development continues to attract a large share of investor attention. For many buyers, off-plan purchasing remains a strategic way to access phased payment plans, newer building specifications, and potential appreciation into handover, particularly when dealing with established developers and proven master communities.
This trend is visible across high-activity districts such as Jumeirah Village Circle and Business Bay, where buyers typically prioritise liquidity, tenant demand, and price points that still sit below prime waterfront benchmarks.
Where Transaction Volumes Concentrated in November
Top performing areas by transaction volume included Jumeirah Village Circle, Wadi Al Safa 5, Business Bay, Dubai South, and Mina Rashid. This geographic spread shows demand remains diversified, spanning both established central districts and emerging infrastructure-driven zones where future connectivity and master planning are central to the investment thesis.
In parallel, prime locations such as Dubai Marina and Downtown Dubai typically play a different role in the cycle, attracting capital that prioritises scarcity, brand value, and long-term exit positioning, even when overall transaction counts are higher elsewhere.
Population Growth Continues to Support Structural Demand
Dubai’s population exceeded 4 million in 2025, reinforcing demand fundamentals across both rental and ownership markets. Population growth supports absorption, especially in mid-market apartment communities where rental demand is typically strongest, and in villa-led districts where longer-term residents establish household stability.
For investors, this matters because a high-volume off-plan market requires consistent absorption capacity. Demographic growth is one of the underlying mechanisms that can soften delivery cycles and prevent supply from translating directly into sustained vacancy pressure.
Outlook for 2026: Growth Likely Continues, But Becomes More Selective
Despite November’s strong performance, analysts expect 2026 to bring more moderation in certain segments as new supply is delivered. Approximately 120,000 new units are projected for delivery in 2026, compared to around 30,000 in 2024. However, Dubai’s historical delivery patterns often show that actual completion numbers land below initial projections, which can reduce the intensity of oversupply pressure.
Market expectations increasingly point toward a segmented adjustment rather than a broad reversal. Prime villas and luxury properties are generally expected to remain resilient, with modest growth, while mid-market apartments, where much of the delivery pipeline is concentrated, may face price pressure or a correction that could reach 10–15% in specific pockets.
For investors, the practical strategy is shifting. The market is moving from rapid appreciation to a more selective phase where asset quality, developer execution, and location-driven demand become the primary determinants of performance. Choosing strong developers such as Emaar and Sobha Realty, and focusing on districts with durable end-user demand, becomes increasingly important in this stage of the cycle.
Investor Takeaway: Quality and Location Define the Next Phase
November 2025 confirms that Dubai remains a high-momentum market, supported by strong annual price growth, record transaction value, and cash-driven resilience. At the same time, the outlook for 2026 suggests investors should adopt a more disciplined, research-led approach, focusing on communities with sustained tenant demand and projects backed by reliable delivery track records.
For tailored guidance on which districts and project types align with your return expectations in 2026, and to explore opportunities across Dubai’s most active communities, connect with Aurantius Real Estate to review listings and receive expert, investor-focused market support.
